Chovanec on China: Increasing Disconnect between Official Numbers and Reality

In the video below, Patrick Chovanec, associate professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing, talks about the increasing disconnect between the government’s official numbers and the reality he is seeing on the street as a resident. Here are his core ideas:

That the reported decrease in China’s consumer inflation rate (CPI) does not seem to accord with my own daily experience of rising prices in China; That there is reason to suspect the Chinese economy may be . . .

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Remember Chinese Reverse Mergers?

Remember last year when everyone was agog about which Chinese company listed in the US (via a backdoor process called a Reverse Merger) would be exposed as a fraud? While interest has moved on, the legal wars are ongoing and evidently producing some interesting activities.

Last year, one of the opening shots in the Chinese RTO controversy was ChinaCast Education Corp (NASDAQ: CAST – how is it still listed?). Kerrisdale Capital issued a 40 page report detailing their egregious . . .

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China: Signs of a New Tiananmen

Speaking of China, the following is a new article published in The Diplomat magazine, Signs of a New Tiananmen in China (emphasis added):

The range of issues is wide and diverse. Despite disagreement among participants in this incipient post-1989 Chinese intellectual renaissance, the discussion is fast converging on three critical issues. First, there appears to be a widely shared consensus among China’s thinking class that the country’s economic reform is either dead or mired in stagnation. Second, those who . . .

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China’s Misplaced Billionaire

It appears China has lost one of its billionaires. Dalian Shide Group Co. Ltd. has been unable to make contact with its Chairman, Xu Ming, since March 14, and now the banks are getting nervous:

The sudden disappearance of a self-made billionaire in the coastal city of Dalian has unnerved not only bank executives concerned about loans they made to his companies, but also government officials who have lent generous support to the expansion of his business empire.

. . .

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Debate: Chinese Hard Landing

Patrick Chovanec of Tsinghua University and Andrew Batson of Beijing-based consultancy Gavekal-Dragonomics debate. Chovanec takes the hard landing position, Batson takes the soft.

Here’s the first shot:

Dear Andrew,

There really are two related but distinct things people have in mind when they talk about a “hard landing” for China. The first is a rapid deceleration of GDP growth – below, say, 7%. The second is some kind of financial crisis. I think we’re already seeing some signs of . . .

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