Bob Doll is the Chief Equity Strategist of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. Here are his ten predictions for 2012 (from his Weekly Investment Commentary):
- The European debt crisis begins to ease, even as Europe experiences a recession
- The US economy continues to muddle through yet again
- Despite slowing growth, China and India contribute more than half of the world’s economic growth
- US earnings grow modestly, but fail to exceed estimates for the first time since the Great Recession
- Treasury rates rise and quality spreads fall
- US equities experience a double-digit percentage return as multiples rise modestly for the first time since the Great Recession
- US stocks outperform non-US stocks for the third year in a row
- Dividends and buybacks hit a record high
- Healthcare and energy outperform utilities and financials
- Republicans capture the Senate, retain the House, and defeat President Obama
My take: though I agree with almost all of this (I am agnostic about #10), I think he is underestimating the deterioration in China and India and the effect this will have (though he does include this in his commentary as an extreme “what can go wrong” event). This, and several other macro events could easily jeopardize #6.
What’s your take?
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